Updated, May 2, 2025 – New-vehicle sales in April finished near 1.46 million according to initial estimates, above even Cox Automotive’s positive forecast below. Our Industry Insights team had been expecting solid sales in April, spurred on by concerns of higher prices on the horizon. As expected, though, sales in April were lower than in March, as the early-in-the-month frenzy cooled off some as the weeks passed.
While speaking to the Automotive Press Association earlier this week, Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke noted, “We’ve seen sales increasing since the major tariff announcements, but the pace of increase has been slowing, especially in the back half of April. Yes, sales are strong. But the slowing pace of increase suggests that we may just be at the peak, and possibly even starting the other side of that peak.”
The seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales (SAAR) in March was a notable 17.8 million units, the hottest sales pace in nearly four years. The sales pace in April is now being initially estimated at 17.3 million, down from March as expected but higher than the Cox Automotive forecast. Records were set by several automakers in April, including Hyundai and Kia, and indications are that the market’s strength last month was driven mostly by retail sales, not fleet sales.
The healthy sales in April means that new-vehicle supply heading into May is now tighter, and much of the inventory arriving to replenish dealerships in the coming months will be vehicles (and will include parts) exposed to new tariffs at the border. As Smoke added, “The first phase of the frenzy in the retail vehicle market seems to have passed, as April is ending with a little less momentum than certainly it began. Meanwhile uncertainty remains acute, especially regarding what will happen next as many of these tariff-motivated buyers, we believe, have likely already acted. Supply has since tightened, and prices have trended higher.”
As May begins, many automakers are aggressively advertising a willingness to hold prices steady in the face of new tariffs on automobiles and parts, hoping to grab market share by encouraging consumers to act now. But with tighter supply and fewer discounts available — worth noting: The “holding prices steady” promise is very different than discounting — it is quite likely that May will look and feel a lot more like a seller’s market, not a buyer’s market.